Detailed Map of the Growing Monster......and a Projected Landfall

These images are from the response team's website.

Lessons From the Disaster

The LA Times today published a great editorial regarding lessons learned (or lessons that should be learned) from the ongoing oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Here are a few excerpts:

"Last week’s oil rig disaster should remind us that expansion of the environmentally risky practice is not the way to go.

Here's what we've already learned: Offshore drilling is more dangerous than industry apologists claim (11 men are believed to have died in the explosion), and it can have environmentally devastating impacts.

This kind of environmental tragedy isn't unprecedented — a similar rig explosion happened last year off Australia — and we'll probably be seeing it more often if Congress expands drilling off U.S. shores. There's a better way of using our coastal resources to generate energy. On Wednesday, the Obama administration approved the country's first offshore wind farm, a 130-turbine project off Massachusetts that is guaranteed never to foul beaches with tar or emit carbon into the atmosphere. Cape Wind is the future; the sunken Deepwater Horizon drilling rig represents a tarred past."

Oil Spill Counter: Gulf Oil Disaster is spilling 210,000 gallons a day

This is an explanation of how we determined what number to use to count the total amount of oil spilled from the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

We based our calculation on the approach used by SkyTruth, which is explained below.

Using their method it is estimated that 5,000 barrels or 210,000 gallons of oil has been spilling each day since the incident began.

U.S. Coast Guard estimates:

When the Deepwater Horizon initially caught fire at 11 PM on Thursday, April 20th and burned until it sank mid morning on Thursday, April 22nd, the U.S. Coast Guard estimated that approximately 8,000 (or 336,000 gallons) barrels of oil was leaking per day.

On early Friday, April 23rd, the U.S. Coast Guard reported that the leak appeared to have stopped.

Sometime on Saturday, April 24th, the U.S. Coast Guard reported that oil was leaking from the sea floor (5000 feet below the surface) at 1,000 barrels (or 42,000 gallons) per day. Until today, that was the number they were reporting.

To our knowledge, the U.S. Coast Guard has not provided any specific justification for how these numbers were estimated.

SkyTruth estimates:

The folks at SkyTruth took a different approach. On April 27th (approximately Day 6 of the spill) they calculated the total volume of the spill based on satellite observations and divided by the amount of time that oil had occurred. This approach yields a conservative estimate that the spill is leaking approximately 5,000 barrels (or 210,000 gallons) of oil each day. It does not account for the oil that burned or has been cleaned up to that point, which, if accounted, for would make the daily estimate higher. This estimate is based on empirical evidence - the area and minimum thickness of the spill to be visible.

You can read this post by SkyTruth here to see precisely how this calculation was made.

February 21, 2011 Update: SkyTruth wanted us to note that Dr. Ian MacDonald from FSU was the one who initially calculated the 26,500 barrel a day estimate. Read here.

Bigger Than Exxon Valdez Spill?

SkyTruth is reporting that their analysis of radar satellite images and "conservative calculations" indicate that in the first week of the oil spill at least 6 million gallons may have entered the Gulf. That's a spill rate of at least 850,000 gallons (20,000 barrels) per day, 20 times larger than the official Goast Guard estimate of 42,000 gallons per day.

The Australia blowout and spill took 10 weeks to control.

The Exxon Valdez tanker spill totaled 11 million gallons.

Do the math and you'll see that this spill has the potential to blow by the Exxon Valdez amount.

Um... yeah, that's a good idea.

News outlets are reporting that the Coast Guard has plans to try and set the massive oil spill from last Tuesday's sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig on fire before it can reach the coast.

While alarming, the tactic may be one of the few options left to try and thwart what is becoming more and more likely to be a certain environmental disaster.

The spill, which has grown to size larger than West Virginia, is now less than 40 miles from the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The Coast Guard has said that is will attempt to set several small "controlled burns." According to officials, if successful the fire should eliminate most of the "light oil" but would still leave much of the "heavier material" that is suspended below the surface. It is believed that some of that material will likely reach the coast. "We will still see some environmental damage," said Rice University Chemical Engineering Professor Walter Chapman.

Meanwhile, efforts to control the spill at sea are not fairing any better. According to the satellite imagery outlet SkyTruth, containment efforts are proving ineffectual. The spill is just too large.

Oppose Destructive Seismic Testing for Oil Exploration

President Obama recently announced a significant expansion in offshore drilling and exploration. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) has called for seismic surveying to explore for oil along the mid and south Atlantic. Seismic surveying is incredibly damaging to marine ecosystems.

Seismic surveys are conducted to locate and estimate the size of an offshore oil reserve. In order to conduct surveys, ships use ‘airgun arrays’ to emit high-decibel explosive impulses in order to map the seafloor. The noise from seismic surveys can damage or kill fish eggs and larvae and impair the hearing and health of fish, making them susceptible to predators and making it challenging for them to locate prey or mates or communicate with each other. These disturbances can disrupt important migratory patterns, forcing marine life away from suitable habitats meant for foraging and mating. In addition, seismic surveys have been implicated in whale beaching and stranding incidents.

Seismic testing is equivalent to a bomb detonating every few seconds for months on end! To learn more about seismic testing check out this Surfrider Foundation fact sheet on Coastal A-Z here.

Take a moment to send a clear message that seismic testing is devastating to marine ecosystems--urge the MMS to consider the environmental impacts of seismic surveying and the use of less damaging alternative technologies.

Go here to send your letter.

Oil Spill Continues; Slick Grows; Coasts Threatened

National Geographic reports:

Response teams were deploying remote-operated submarines in an urgent effort Sunday to stop the flow of oil from the site of the accident in the Gulf of Mexico that destroyed the BP-leased rig, the Deepwater Horizon.

If the gambit fails, it could take months to stop the leak-now estimated at 42,000 gallons per day of crude oil, according to the joint U.S. government and oil industry task force.

Response teams were deploying remote-operated submarines in an urgent effort Sunday to stop the flow of oil from the site of the accident in the Gulf of Mexico that destroyed the BP-leased rig, the Deepwater Horizon.

The best hope is that the remote-operated submarines-at least four are deployed at the scene--would be able to activate a huge device on the sea floor called a "blow-out protector," a series of valves meant to control pressure in the well. "This is a highly complex operation," said Doug Suttles, chief operating officer for BP's exploration and production division. "And it may not be successful."

If that operation fails, the next option is to drill a relief well-a process that would take at least two to three months, said Suttles. A BP rig equipped for this task is to arrive at the scene by Monday.

In the above graphic, note the Wildlife Reserves in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Also, should the oil become entrained in the Florida Loop Current it could be transported along the Florida Reef Tract, through the Keys and to the Florida east coast. A recent aerial photograph of the oil slick, plus additional images of the Deepwater Horizon blowout can be seen here.

-- UPDATE: 1:30 PM PST --

According to the NY Times, "Coast Guard officials said Monday afternoon that the oil spill near Louisiana was now covering more than 1,800 square miles of the Gulf of Mexico, and they have been unable to engage a mechanism that could shut off the well thousands of feet below the ocean's surface." Also "The unified command is monitoring the situation and is working closely with officials from Fish and Wildlife, National Marine Fisheries Service and NOAA to understand the impact the spill and response activities may have on whales and other marine wildlife in the area."